March Algerie monthly report (1/4)

 

ALGERIA MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT

                     Executive Summary

                        Political Trends

·     Taking advantage of the attention that has been focussed on the south of the country in the wake of the In Amenas attack, trade unionists and the unemployed in Algeria’s southern wilayas have launched one of the broadest and most militant protest movements over socio-economic issues that the country has seen in years, prompting PM Sellal to issue dire warnings about “criminal gangs” seeking to split southern Algeria away from the north.

·      At the same time, a number of corruption scandals involving figures formerly close to President Bouteflika, which had been thought to be closed cases, have returned with a vengeance.

·      There are signs that the military – encouraged by the centre-stage role it has been given by the war in Mali and its repercussions in Algeria but irked by Bouteflika’s decision to grant the French over-flight rights and by disputes over commissions on defence procurement – is re-emerging as a political player. The resurgence of the corruption scandals may be a factor of this.

·      In place of the old duumvirate made up of Bouteflika and DRS chief Tewfik, a more complex, three-way game, involving Bouteflika, Tewfik and the military, may be emerging in the run-up to the 2014 presidential election.

                        Foreign Relations

·     With the French military battling AQMI and its allies very close to Algeria’s southern borders, a French general has praised Algiers as “our best ally in Mali”.

·      President Bouteflika has nonetheless been happy to let the Russian Foreign Minister condemn, in the name of both their countries, outside intervention “in Mali and Syria”.

·      Algiers’ efforts to acquire US-made armed drones have been predictably unsuccessful. The question of collaboration with the American drone capability in the Sahara remains open.

                        Security

·     In a rare report of jihadist activity in the capital, one Algerian daily has claimed that the security forces apprehended a would-be suicide bomber in an Algiers suburb towards the end of February.

·      Overall, however, AQMI in northern Algeria appears to be on the back foot at present and not well equipped to launch attacks in solidarity with its comrades in northern Mali.

·      With the armed forces and the Energy Ministry still discussing how best to secure oil and gas facilities in the south of the country, a vehicle belonging to an Italian company was hijacked and stolen near Hassi Messaoud in early February.

·      There have been suggestions that foreign oil companies will be prohibited from using private security firms to defend their installations in southern Algeria, with the army taking over this role.

·      Sporadic reporting of mostly minor incidents on the southern and eastern borders continues, but may not be a full reflection of the real situation.

·     Reports that one of AQMI’s main leaders in the Sahara, Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, has been killed are judged credible by French official sources.